Reddit user reportedly analyzed 1 million Super Smash Bros. Ultimate tournament matches to calculate character match ups and stage choices from data

Lucina might be much better than people are giving her credit for now

Posted by Dakota 'DarkHorse' Hills • July 4, 2020 at 12:19 p.m. PDT | Comments: 15

Tier lists and character match ups are things that are usually centered around a player's personal experience and feelings, but how do things shape up from a more empirical approach to the idea?

A Reddit user going by the name of Will_occam recently did just that for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate by reportedly analyzing the outcomes of 1 million tournament matches to put together character match ups and stage selection effectiveness based on the data.

Perhaps the most surprising discovery related to the tournament data sets is just how overall well-balanced characters seem to be at actual events.

Will_occam claims that the fighter with the highest win rate overall is Lucina at only 55 percent while Ryu has the "worst" funnily enough though even then the Street Fighter rep is still at 46 percent.

Breaking it down further to cover the individual character match ups shows more of a separation between the cast and how they tend to perform where Ryu is apparently subjected to around 8-2 unfavorable pairings with the likes of Daisy, Olimar and Lucario.

Some of that is due to the low amount of recorded set history for particular match ups, so the Reddit user limited things further to focus on character matches that had at least 50 data points of reference.

This sharply evened out the statistics a good bit to the point the creator says the worst match ups become 66-34.

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Stage selection, however, did have a significant effect on those win rates in some cases to the point Sonic only has an 18 percent win rate on Yoshi's Story after 1,171 games as opposed to his overall 49 percent rating.

Mario is on the exact opposite end with a 77 percent win rate on the same stage, as Will points out Yoshi's Story allows him to hit ladder combos more easily.

Lylat Cruise unsurprisingly appears to offer the most benefit / detriments for match ups after Yoshi's Story though most of the other stage picks are much more even in terms of character performance.

There are of course limitations to the data gathered for these comparisons since these are garnered only from events held on Smash.gg which often feature different rule sets, seeding, etc. though this is a very interesting tool to take advantage of in our current space.

It is worth pointing out that this was aggregated before Min Min and update Version 8.0.0 dropped, so there's no impact of changes from that time reflected in these charts.

If you choose to accept this data at face value, it paints a very positive image for Smash Ultimate's overall balance which is an impressive feat given the game's massive 80+ character roster now. It's also a good sign after some of the struggles the previous entries have dealt with on a competitive level since its inception.

Sent in by Sunforged One.

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