Who's at risk for not making the cut at Capcom Cup, and who's virtually a lock to see there? Check out our pre-NA Regional Finals breakdown

Is it time for Cinderella stories, or will the gatekeepers shatter some dreams?

Posted by John 'Velociraptor' Guerrero • November 9, 2019 at 7:15 p.m. PST | Comments: 11

The final picture for Capcom Cup has all but one or two pieces in place, but some significant shuffling can still happen as we have one very big event left on the schedule before brackets become finalized: The Super Premier-status North American Regional Finals.

Come next weekend (November 16-17) not only will we find out who the representative for the NA region will be, but we'll also see how the final few thousand global points will be dispersed. The race around the cutoff line is red-hot at the moment, so let's take a closer look to see who is fighting for their 2019 Capcom Pro Tour life.

As a Super Premier, the NA Regional Finals will award a whopping 1,000 points to whoever takes down first place. Second will get a cool 500, third will get 300, and even a ninth place finish will earn you a respectable 100 points. (Check out the full point breakdown here.)

Competitors are all vying to be in 27th place or above on the Global Leaderboards as 28th is only good for a participation trophy. Currently, RB|Luffy is the last man in at 27th and 845 points, leaving SB|801 Strider on the bubble.

Truly though, with as many points as are on the table, even those who are around the 25th rank are not comfortable at all right now, and the handful of players immediately below Strider are salivating at their last chance to gain CC berth via points.

Steve "AceKingoffSuit" Jurek put together the visual here to give us a better idea of who is where at the moment. Those in green are mathematically qualified, though it would take something of a miracle for Liquid|Nemo (23rd - 925 pts) and those above him to not make it.

Not only will those near the cutoff line need to best one another next weekend, but they'll also have to face some of the competitors that are already qualified and have been for some time. The first place REC|Punk is currently registered for the event, as is RB|Bonchan, Rohto|Tokido, and CYG|Fuudo (2nd-4th, respectively).

Indeed, of the 118 players currently signed up, a good number of them are simply playing for the prize pool, better seeding, and to gatekeep against those trying to qualify.

Last year's second place finisher, DNG|Itazan, is in danger of not making the cut as he and AZ|Kichipa-mu are deadlocked in 29th with 780 points apiece.

A third place finish is really the worst RISE|Smug (31st - 645pts) can afford at the event if he's to hope to qualify, and the same goes for 2017 Cap Cup champion, Bandits|MenaRD (32nd - 615pts). Even then, third might not be enough if some of the competitors just above these two also place decently well.

Takamura (33rd - 545pts) is actually en route to qualifying as the European regional representative since everyone who is above him on the Euro leaderboards is already qualified. If Luffy falls below the cutoff line, however, he'll be taking that spot and Takamura will be out. You can bet Tak is rooting for a good weekend for the 2014 Ultra Steet Fighter 4 EVO champion.

The other big variable yet to be determined is the North American regional representative. First, second, third, and fifth (NuckleDu, Punk, iDom, and UYU|JB, respectively) are all currently qualified, so if any of them win the NA Regional spot and maintain their Global Point qualification, Strider will wind up in Capcom Cup even if he's unable to jump to 27th or better on the Global standings.

It's also all but certain that the Australian Travis Styles will be the Asian regional representative, despite being in 9th place on the Asia leaderboards, because the eight competitors ahead of him are all qualified via Global points.

Who are you hoping scores a last minute berth, or holds onto their unstable standings? We'll be watching with great interest as these final pieces of the puzzle are put into place when the NA Regional Finals play out in Las Vegas next weekend.

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